Beware of a Bull Market

Wow, its been quite an interesting and volatile last couple of weeks.  The “Flash Crash” notwithstanding, it seems that the correction we saw last week has disappeared in a wisp of smoke fueled by what I feel is false confidence.  I get that people are relieved that Greece has been bailed out for now and that the European nations have bonded together to support the Euro, but the bailout is a band aid at best.  As worst it has served to delay the inevitable and the inevitable is BAD.  So as the market regains all it lost last week, we are back to where we were, totally ignoring basic fundamentals and basking is the belief the economy is in a V shaped recovery.   Who are they kidding????  We just got through Q1 earnings announcements and they were for the most part positive.  So the market screamed up, up, up.  Don’t investor realize that earnings were up based on managed inventories and cost cutting and not revenue growth?  The job market has not gotten significantly better, jobs are not being created, so why the optimism?  I just don’t think things are getting that much better that fast.  Call me a pessimist, but I just don’t get it.  And let’s talk about the deficit.   The IMF bailed out Greece to the tune of trillions of dollars.  Okay, good to stem a catastrophic slide, we did it with TARP to keep our economy from crisis, but at the end of the day, who funds the IMF?  Guess who?  WE DO.  the US makes up 20% of the IMF so in essence, we the US taxpayer is bailing out Greece.  Where’s that money coming from?  And the market screams up.  I’m not an economist, and these are just my thoughts.  So are we teeing up a big correction?  Bigger than the flash crash of last week?    A market slide based on fundamentals that makes last week look like a bump?  No one knows and I do believe we are in a slow economic recovery and that the markets will be up 10% or more by the end of the year.  Just beware, rocky roads are ahead.